Ethereum Ready for Price Rise as Number of STH Approaches 4 Million — Here’s Why

Along with the crypto market in general, Ethereum (ETH) has recorded a significant recovery of the market at the end of April to return to levels above $1,800. After a major price correction that began in December 2024, this outstanding altcoin may have finally found some bullish momentum to turn the fortunes of investors around. Interestingly, renowned crypto analyst Burak Kesmeci has provided some positive insights regarding this development. Retail investor cash flow in Ethereum supports a bullish case. In a post on X on May 2, Burak Kesmeci hypothesized that Ethereum may be entering a prolonged bullish trend based on the activity of short-term holders. According to the seasoned analyst, the number of short-term holders or traders of ETH is approaching a specific threshold that historically signals a long-term price increase. In the ETH market, short-term holders are wallets or addresses that have recently purchased ETH, typically under 155 days. These investors are often sensitive to market trends and price fluctuations, usually driven by speculation and quick profit-taking rather than long-term conviction.

Typically, the number of short-term investors increasing indicates new interest from the market due to new participants entering the market. However, Kesmeci stated that short-term holders of ETH, currently at 3.92 million, must surpass 4 million to demonstrate that the ETH market possesses enough bullish strength for a strong upward trend. Notably, Ethereum has created strong bullish rallies when the number of STH previously exceeded 4 million, as seen in 2022 and 2024. Kesmeci stated that as long as short-term ETH holders remain below this threshold, it may reflect insufficient market demand to sustain the current bullish trend of Ethereum. Meanwhile, the number of long-term Ethereum holders has now reached 104.24 million, indicating strong market confidence in the bullish outlook for the asset. The increase in LTH typically occurs due to coins maturing as short-term holders choose not to sell for more than 155 days. Ethereum SMA 365 creates another barrier. In addition to the developments among short-term holders, Burak Kesmeci notes that Ethereum is still significantly lower than the 365-day simple moving average (SMA 365), indicating that the buyers have not yet fully taken control of the market. As its name suggests, the SMA 365 measures the average closing price over the past 365 days. This line is used to indicate price trends and often serves as a resistance level in a bearish market or a support level in a bullish market. Despite the recent gains in the market, ETH must break above the SMA 365 at $2,849 to confirm any strong bullish intent. At the time of the press report, Ethereum was trading at $1,835, reflecting a 0.80% decline over the past day. Meanwhile, the trading volume of this asset decreased by 15.01%.