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The market dynamics of Bitcoin (BTC) have always been a hot topic in the Crypto Assets field. Recently, analyses have indicated that BTC may reach a critical Liquidity exhaustion point on January 3, 2026, a prediction that has sparked widespread discussion.
Liquidity exhaustion does not mean that the exchange has no BTC at all, but rather that the amount of BTC available for trading has fallen to a level that cannot support normal market operations. Specifically, when the BTC reserves of an exchange fall below the minimum level required to maintain daily trading and price discovery, the market will lose effective pricing ability. In this case, even small buy orders may lead to significant price fluctuations, causing the spot market to deviate from normal valuation.
This prediction is based on the current on-chain data and the trend analysis of the exchange's holdings. Key parameters include:
1. The exchange currently holds approximately 1.8 million BTC.
2. The ETF daily average absorbs about 3100 BTC
3. The average daily net withdrawal of users is approximately 3000 coins, with a daily growth rate of 0.1%.
4. Miners produce approximately 450 BTC daily, of which about 225 flow into exchanges.
According to this data, the daily net consumption amount (user withdrawals + ETF absorption - miner deposits) is approximately 3100-3500 BTC. At this rate, the exchange reserves will be depleted in about 165 days, landing precisely on January 3, 2026.
It is worth noting that January 3rd is the birthday of Bitcoin. If the market really reaches a critical point and triggers a surge on this day, it is likely to be seen as the beginning of a new era for Bitcoin, further strengthening market confidence.
However, this prediction still faces many uncertainties. For example, the implementation of the US stablecoin legislation may accelerate retail investors' allocation to BTC, thereby affecting the timing of liquidity exhaustion. In addition, factors such as the behavioral patterns of market participants and changes in the global economic situation may also impact this prediction.
Regardless, as the Bitcoin ecosystem continues to evolve, changes in market Liquidity will remain a focus of attention. Investors and market participants need to closely monitor these trends in order to better seize market opportunities and risks.