6 valuation methods to estimate: Can Ethereum reach 10,000 USD this round?

This article uses six different valuation models to deeply analyze the probability of Ethereum (ETH) hitting $10,000 in this bull market, and comprehensively assess its future price movements. This article is from an article written by biteyecn and was compiled, compiled and written by BlockBeats. (Synopsis: Bitcoin hits $124,500 to hit another all-time high!) Ethereum approaching $4,800) (Background added: Cryptocurrency market cap hits an all-time high of $4.18 trillion!) Bitcoin has a 57% monopoly, Ethereum has a 13% split) Ethereum ETH has rebounded from its April lows and is now at the $4,500 mark. If 2024 is the beginning of a bull run for Bitcoin ETFs, then 2025 is likely to be Ethereum's turn. This article uses 6 valuation methods to disassemble whether ETH can hit the $10,000 mark! 1/8 ETH/BTC ratio First, let's compare ETH and BTC for relative valuations. The ETH/BTC ratio is actually very stable in the long run, but the current ratio is only 0.0372, which has been in the lower middle of history in the past 5 years, so the current ETH may be "undervalued". Based on the average ETH/BTC ratio of 0.0518 over the past five years, assuming that BTC remains around $120,000, the corresponding ETH price is $6,214. If you refer to the ETH/BTC ratio of 0.06-0.08 in the last bull market, and still assume that BTC remains around $120,000, then the corresponding ETH price is $7200-9600. 2/8 Ethereum ETFs and institutional holdings With the price of ETH soaring, over-the-counter funds poured into Ethereum ETFs. Many people overlook the actual impact of Ethereum ETFs and institutional buying, which is not only sentimentally positive, but also a huge buy. According to @SoSoValueCrypto data, the Ethereum spot ETF hit a new record high, with a net inflow of $1.019 billion on August 11, Eastern time, and the current total net asset value of the Ethereum spot ETF is $25.712 billion, and the position has reached about 6 million ETH, accounting for 4.96% of the current ETH circulating supply, compared with the BTC ETF percentage of 6.48%, there is still room for growth. In addition, 70 Ethereum reserves actually hold about 3.49 million ETH, accounting for 2.89% of the circulating supply of ETH, and BMNR has stated that it aims to eventually hold 5% of the global circulating supply of Ethereum. After deducting the pledge lock-up of 36.17 million, there are only about 75.1 million free circulation disks left. The next price calculation is based on a simple assumption: the proportion of free float reduction will push up the price of a single coin by the same proportion. That is, the new price = the current price × (target free float / current free float) If ETFs and institutional reserves are packaged as a whole, they currently hold 7.85% of the total supply. Assuming that this proportion increases to 10% in the future, and the pledge lock-up ratio does not change much, the free float will shrink to about 72.52 million, and the corresponding price will be mechanically moved up to about $4647; If it rises to 15%, it will be pushed to about $5070; If it rises to 20%, it is close to $6,000. This does not take into account the amplification effect on the demand side, and the real increase may be higher. In addition, ETFs and institutional incremental funds usually take a certain amount of time to be delivered, which means that the ETH price center will be raised in a long-term and stable manner, rather than a short-term rush. 3/8 Metcalfe's Law When discussing ETH valuation, many people focus on price fluctuations and hot narratives, but ignore the long-term support of on-chain activity on the value of the network. Metcalfe's law states that the value of a network is proportional to the square of its number of active users, and when used on Ethereum, the value of the network is ≈ k × (number of daily active addresses)². The simple understanding is that "the more users, the more valuable the network", and the square level growth of the number of users will bring about an exponential increase in market value. According to BitInfoCharts data, on August 13, 2025, the number of daily active addresses on the Ethereum mainnet in the past 24 hours (DAA) was about 971486, the current price of ETH was about $4,500, the total circulation was about 120.7 million, and the market capitalization was about $543.1 billion. Substituting the formula yields the current coefficient k ≈ 0.576 (USD/address²). With this k, you can calculate the price in different activity scenarios: If the DAA increases to 1 million, the price is about $4768 (+6%) If the DAA increases to 1.1 million, the price is about $5769 (+28.2%) If optimistic to 130 million (close to the all-time high of 90%), the price is about $8058 (+79.1%) This estimation assumes that the amount of collateral and the circulating disk remain relatively stable, and the increase in activity will directly amplify the value of the network, thereby pushing up the price of a single ETH. Unlike ETFs and institutional buying, Metcalfe's approach reflects the endogenous growth of on-chain usage and economic activity, which does not rely on external capital inflows, but on the accumulation of compound interest based on network effects. Note that once activity resonates with the capital surface - on-chain transactions increase, fees rise, burning volume recovers, and the chip contraction effect of ETFs and institutions is superimposed, the price of ETH will be driven by both supply contraction and network expansion, which may rise much faster than predicted by a single factor. 4/8 NVT model NVT is essentially like "encrypted PE", given a reasonable NVT multiple (reference historical interval) and future daily transfer amount, you can reverse the market value and price. NVT = market capitalization (USD) / on-chain transfer amount on the day (USD), calculate the current NVT=518B/14B=37 ETH NVT historically roughly in the range of 60–110, currently in the lower historical position. Assume that the NVT multiple is in a reasonable range of 60/80/90/100/110 for 6–12 months; The amount transferred on-chain (USD) takes into account the volatility of the future range of 7B–14B/day. 6-month scenario · Conservative: NVT 70, Daily Transfer $7B → Market Cap ≈ $490B → Price ≈ $4,059 · Benchmark: NVT 80, daily transfer $9B → Market Cap ≈ $720B → Price ≈ $5,965 · Optimistic: NVT 90, daily transfer $12B → market cap ≈ $1080B → Price ≈ $8,947 12-month scenario · Conservative: NVT 75, daily transfer $8B → market cap ≈ $600 billion → price ≈ $4,971 · Benchmark: NVT 90, daily transfer $10B → Market Cap ≈ $900 billion → Price ≈ $7,456 · Optimistic: NVT 100, daily transfer $14B → market cap ≈ $1.4 trillion → price ≈ $11,598 That is, ETH's net...