Crypto Market Weekly Report: Stablecoin Rise Indicates Capital Inflow, But Overall Sentiment Remains Weak

Market Overview

This week, the crypto market showed a trend of fluctuating decline, with the market sentiment index dropping from 11% to 8%. The market capitalization of stablecoins began to rise rapidly, with USDT reaching 142.7 billion and USDC reaching 57.2 billion, with increases of 0.49% and 2.32% respectively, indicating that institutional funds are re-entering the market, primarily driven by the growth of U.S. funds. After the release of economic data and the Federal Reserve's unveiling of the book, the market gradually eliminated concerns about a U.S. economic recession and began to price in three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year starting in May. However, this did not alleviate market sentiment; on the contrary, recent policy fluctuations triggered intense volatility in Bitcoin prices, leading to increased panic in market sentiment, with Altcoin performance generally weaker than the benchmark index.

Next Week's Predicted Targets

bullish targets: BTC, S, AAVE, BERA

BTC: After a rapid decline, panic selling occurred. On-chain data shows that most holders did not sell during this drop, but instead began gradually absorbing the chips, so the outlook for BTC in the coming week is optimistic.

S: The fundamentals of Sonic have not changed, and the TVL continues to show a rise trend, with an increase of 9.23%. Major on-chain DeFi projects have all achieved growth, and the APY remains at a high level. Sonic's daily on-chain revenue is $210,000, ranking 6th, far above other public chains with the same TVL.

AAVE: This week, it rose against the trend by 21.38%, with a TVL rise of 5.86%. This is mainly benefited from proposals to optimize governance and token economic models, as well as the White House's support for abolishing DeFi trading report rules. It is expected that this proposal is likely to be realized, which may trigger a buyback frenzy in the DeFi industry.

BERA: Although the price has fallen, on-chain data and fundamentals remain unchanged. The growth rate of TVL in leading projects within the ecosystem has slowed, but LSD and DEX projects still maintain high growth, mainly due to the attraction of high APY.

Bearish targets: APE, APT, MERL, TON

APE: The NFT and Gamefi sectors are dominated by Memes, and ApeCoin is losing attention. A total of 15.37 million APE will soon be unlocked, facing significant selling pressure.

APT: Although an ETF application has been submitted, it is not included in the cryptocurrency reserves announced by Trump. A total of 11.3 million APT will be unlocked soon, which may create sustained selling pressure.

MERL: TVL dropped significantly by 12.44%, with major ecological projects experiencing a large-scale decline. The development of BTC ecological projects has been unsuccessful, coupled with the drop in BTC leading to staking withdrawals.

TON: TVL continues to decline, with almost all on-chain ecosystem projects experiencing a decrease in TVL. SocialFi projects are on the fringe, on-chain mini-games are losing popularity, and the user profit effect is poor.

Market Sentiment Index Analysis

The market sentiment index has dropped from 11% last week to 8%, entering the extreme fear zone overall.

Hot Tracks

Aave

Aave performed outstandingly, with a TVL rise of 5.86%, ranking second. The coin price increased by 21.38%. Main reasons:

1. Plan to optimize ecosystem governance and token economic model, including repurchasing tokens, increasing staking rewards, and optimizing liquidity.
2. The White House supports the repeal of DeFi trading reporting rules to ease compliance burdens.

Future Outlook: As a benchmark for DeFi, Aave's actions may influence the direction of industry development. The repurchase proposal demonstrates multiple advantages, which may encourage more DeFi projects to shift towards a dividend or repurchase model. However, AAVE's current price-to-earnings ratio is higher than MKR, making its purchase value relatively low.

Berachain

Berachain TVL rose by 17.21% to $3.449 billion, but the BERA price corrected by 12.94%.

Hot reasons: Major ecological projects like Infrared Finance and BEX maintain high APY, attracting user participation.

Future Outlook: Berachain forms a sustainable growth cycle through the "staking as productivity" strategy. Continuous attention is required on the on-chain DeFi project APY performance, reflecting the ecological vitality. Currently, the BERA staking ratio is about 30%, with room for rise, optimistic about future development.

Overall Overview of Market Themes

The PayFi track performed the best, while the Sociafi track performed the worst.

Next Week's Major Events in the Crypto Market

• March 12: US February End-of-Month Seasonally Adjusted CPI Year-on-Year
• March 13: Web3 Amsterdam 2025

Summary

This week the crypto market has experienced a volatile decline, with low sentiment. Some projects like BTC, AAVE, and Berachain have shown highlights, but overall are affected by macro policy uncertainties. Investors need to pay attention to on-chain data, policy trends, and the upcoming unlocking events to seize opportunities and mitigate risks.