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Short-term Bitcoin Holders Currently Leading: Has the Price Bottomed Out?
The on-chain data shows that short-term Bitcoin holders have started to sell at a loss. Here is the significance of this for the price of this cryptocurrency. Short-term Bitcoin Holders SOPR Just Dropped Below $1 As CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr pointed out in a recent post on X, the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Profit Ratio (SOPR) has dropped to a recent red alert level. “SOPR” here refers to an indicator on the chain that tells us whether BTC investors are selling their coins at a profit or a loss. This index works by examining the transaction history of each coin sold/transferred on the network to see what the previous transaction price was. If the final transfer price of this currency is lower than the current spot price at which it is being sold, selling it may be considered as resulting in a profit. Similarly, transactions of tokens of the opposite type correspond to incurring losses. SOPR combines profits and losses made on the network in this way and calculates their ratio. In the context of the current topic, only a specific segment of the industry is concerned with the SOPR: short-term holders (STH). This group includes investors who have bought their coins in the past 155 days. When the indicator is greater than 1, it means that STH is generally selling its coins to make a profit. On the other hand, it is below the threshold implying that the advantage lies with those holding losses. Here is a chart showing the trend of the 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Bitcoin STH SOPR over the past decade:
As can be seen in the chart above, Bitcoin STH SOPR's 7-day SMA has surged to a high level in late 2024, implying that this group has participated in significant profit-taking activity as this asset reaches new record highs. This is nothing unusual, as STH has long proven to represent the abnormal aspects of the market, selling whenever they see any significant market changes, such as price spikes or crashes. It can be predicted that, with the market downturn in the past few weeks, STH has shown a different change, as their profit-taking activity has subsided and stop-loss activity has begun to take precedence. The 7-day SMA line of the indicator has decreased to 0.99, indicating that the actual loss level is currently higher than the actual profit level. From the chart, it is clear that previous capitulation events often coincided with Bitcoin peaks. However, so far, the degree of loss is not significant, which may indicate that the indicator may have to decrease a bit more before BTC finds a reversal in price increase. DYOR! #Write2Earn #Write&Earn $BTC {spot}(BTCUSDT)