Bitcoin Price Fluctuates Around 102,300 USD: Rise Momentum Weakens, Adjustment Risk Increases

In the past 48 hours, the Bitcoin market has experienced significant volatility. After dropping below the threshold of 101,000 USD, BTC has recovered slightly and is currently trading around 102,300 USD. However, signs indicate that bullish momentum is weakening, as Bitcoin cannot maintain above the recent peak of 105,787 USD. Current Bitcoin price movement: Momentum is weakening

Observing the 4-hour time frame, BTC price is still maintaining above the two moving averages EMA 20 and EMA 50 – at 102,822 USD and 100,890 USD respectively – indicating that the buyers are still in control in the short term. However, the RSI has dropped to 49 and formed a lower peak, reflecting that buying pressure is weakening as the price has not been able to break out strongly.

On the daily chart, BTC has tested and been rejected twice at the key resistance zone of 105,000 USD – this price area previously acted as a "ceiling" in previous rallies. The inability to break through this area further increases selling pressure due to the lack of new catalysts. Additionally, the current price still remains below the Fibonacci extension level of 1.0 at 109,396 USD, indicating that the bullish momentum may face limitations. Why is the price of Bitcoin falling in the short term?

Observing more closely on the 30-minute time frame, we can see that volatility is increasing with strong fluctuations in the range of 101,000 to 103,000 USD. A triangle structure is forming, reflecting the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The RSI index on this frame has also dropped below 50, while the MACD remains in negative territory and has not yet given a clear reversal signal.

This short-term hesitancy coincides with signs of exhaustion of the uptrend. The 4-hour RSI peaked on May 10 and is gradually declining, despite the price still trying to make new local highs – a divergence sign. Also, on the 30-minute trendline, a symmetrical triangle pattern is forming with the upper edge being the resistance at $104,548 and the lower edge being the support at $101,035. This pattern is expected to make a (breakout) breakout or break (breakdown) around May 14. If Bitcoin cannot decisively break the range of 104,000–105,000 USD with high trading volume, the risk of returning to test the support area of 101,000 USD or further down to 98,000–100,000 USD is quite high. Bitcoin price scenario by May 14: Support and resistance levels to watch Nearest support zone: 101,000 USD Strong support zone: 98,000–100,000 USD ( reinforced by EMA and horizontal structure ) Important resistance zone: 104,500 USD – if broken, it may open up the possibility of a retest at 105,700 and further at 107,000 USD

In the long term, the weekly Fibonacci chart shows that BTC is still maintaining above the 0.618 retracement level around 96,727 USD – this is a positive signal for the macro trend. However, the strong resistance at 109,396 USD remains a significant barrier to overcome to establish a long-term bullish momentum. Summary: The market is in a state of hesitation. With the combination of conflicting technical signals – the RSI indicator is hesitant, the MACD has not confirmed a bullish trend, along with continuous rejection at the important resistance zone – traders should maintain a cautious mindset. The price volatility of Bitcoin is likely to increase in the coming days, especially as BTC approaches the breakout threshold of the triangle pattern on May 14. BTC Forecast Table