Crypto Assets Market Dynamics and Trading Strategy Analysis in Late July

Market Overview

The Crypto Assets market maintained a high-level fluctuation pattern in mid to late July. Bitcoin entered a range consolidation after reaching a historical high, while Ethereum showed a relatively strong trend, steadily approaching the 4,000 USD mark. In terms of volatility, Bitcoin performed steadily, whereas Ethereum experienced multiple amplifications, reflecting an increase in market divergence.

The long-short ratio and funding rate have both fallen back to a neutral and relatively conservative range, indicating that market sentiment is becoming cautious. The contract holding amount remains high, particularly with Ethereum showing more significant growth, reflecting that leverage fund enthusiasm is still strong. The overall liquidation structure is rational, with long liquidations reaching 630 million USD on July 23, serving as a high-level cleansing that releases momentum.

Overall, the market continues to show a structurally bullish pattern, with a cautious attitude from capital participants, yet it has not deviated from the trend foundation and still has the potential for upward momentum. In the short term, attention should be paid to factors such as the coordination of volume and price, as well as changes in the capital situation, as important signals for the continuation of the trend.

Quantitative Strategy Analysis

This article constructs a trend-following trading strategy based on the MACD indicator, testing the backtest of the top ten crypto assets by market capitalization, excluding stablecoins, using 1-hour candlestick data from May 2024 to July 2025 for (. The system tests 384 parameter combinations and selects the five best-performing sets.

The core logic of the strategy is:

• Buy when MACD crosses upwards
• Close position when reaching fixed take profit or stop loss ratio
• Close position when MACD forms a dead cross

The backtest results show that this strategy outperforms Buy and Hold for most coins, particularly with outstanding returns on SUI and TRX, where total returns exceed 100%. Although the win rate is generally not high, it achieves stable positive returns through an asymmetric risk-reward structure and strict stop-loss measures.

The strategy achieves a good balance between profitability, drawdown resistance, and execution efficiency, possessing practical application value. In the future, factors such as trading volume and trend strength can be introduced for optimization, further enhancing adaptability and scalability.

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Summary and Outlook

The current crypto market is generally bullish, but short-term divergences are intensifying, and funding attitudes are cautious. The future direction will highly depend on the evolution of the funding situation and trading structure, with particular attention to changes in trading volume, funding rates, and other indicators.

In this context, the trend-following strategy based on MACD shows good advantages for medium and short-term trading, helping to seize certain opportunities in complex market conditions. It is recommended that investors flexibly use quantitative tools, combining trend judgment with risk control, to participate in the market prudently.