Daily News | BTC Rebound Momentum Showed Signs of Exhaustion, Analysts Said BTC May Not Have Bottomed Out Yet
Crypto Daily Digest: Powell said banks may relax crypto regulations, and analysts said Bitcoin may not have bottomed out yet
According to Farside Investors data, the total net outflow of US Bitcoin spot ETFs yesterday was $201 million. Among them, Fidelity FBTC outflowed $113 million, and Ark ARKB also outflowed $113 million. Yesterday, Ethereum spot ETF outflowed $7.8 million, Grayscale ETHE outflowed $8.2 million, and BlackRock has not updated the outflow data yet.
Powell: Banks may relax crypto regulations in the future
Fed Chairman Powell said that banks may “relax” crypto-related regulations in the future. “We take a fairly conservative view of the guidance and rules that we implement for banks, and other bank regulators take a more conservative view. I think there will be some loosening. We will try to do both to maintain safety and stability and to allow and promote appropriate innovation.”
Viewpoint: Bitcoin may see a rebound similar to that in 2023
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering near multi-year lows after falling below the psychological 100 level. Trader BitBull says DXY is falling at its fastest pace since 2023. BitBull compared the current market trend to Bitcoin’s performance at the time, noting that in early 2023, Bitcoin and altcoins were rebounding from the trough of the 2022 bear market. At that time, BTC had bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2022 and had risen by more than 200% in a year.
Analyst: Bitcoin’s real bottom may appear after “capitulation selling”
According to CoinDesk, although the possibility that the bottom has already appeared cannot be ruled out, on-chain analyst James Check said that the real bottom may not appear until Bitcoin experiences a real “capitulation sell-off” event.
James Check stated that could mean Bitcoin needs to fall back to around the $65,000 area, which he called the “true market mean,” or the average holding cost for active investors. Once it falls to that level, average investors may start to feel the pressure of unrealized losses, and even long-term holders who have held the currency for as long as five years may face a “stuck” situation. Michael Saylor’s Strategy’s average Bitcoin holding cost is about $67,500.
Market Trends: AERGO rose more than 20% in 24 hours, and BTC’s rebound momentum showed signs of exhaustion
Market Hotspots
AERGO rose by more than 20% in 24 hours. The token was originally announced to be delisted by some exchanges recently, but it ushered in a hype frenzy and saw a short-term pull-up.
The new coin WCT surged by more than 100% at one point, and then fell sharply. WCT is an open source network that connects users to decentralized applications through a secure and interoperable protocol.
Mainstream Coins
BTC continued to fluctuate, falling below $84,000 during the session and then rebounding. From a morphological perspective, BTC’s recent upward momentum showed signs of exhaustion, and short-term price support may be seen at the $82,000 mark.
ETH followed the broader market, falling below $1,600 before rebounding. ETF data still suggests that its outlook is not optimistic.
Altcoins generally fell, RWA continued to fall, and Layer2 became the leading sector. Within the sector, AERGO fell by more than 60%, and FUEL and MOVE both fell by more than 10%.
Macro News: Expectations of the Fed’s rescue dashed, the three major U.S. stock indexes fell significantly
The US stock market fell significantly on Wednesday. The three major indexes closed sharply lower. The Nasdaq fell more than 500 points, a drop of 3.07%; the Dow fell nearly 700 points, a drop of 1.73%; and the S&P 500 fell 2.24%. Powell’s speech dampened the US stock market’s expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates to save the market.
Previously, when the U.S. stock market plummeted, Trump repeatedly hoped that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates, and the market also increased its hopes for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates urgently to stabilize the stock market. However, the latest speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell poured cold water on the market. Powell reiterated that the Fed will focus on preventing tariff-driven price increases from turning into more persistent inflation. This statement reinforced the signal that Powell has repeatedly sent out: the Fed is not in a hurry to adjust its benchmark policy rate. Powell said that the United States faces a highly uncertain outlook, with high risks of rising unemployment and inflation. The Fed will assess the possible impact of changes in government policies, observe economic behavior, and formulate monetary policy in a way that best achieves the Fed’s mission goals.
