Gate Research: ETH Slides in Volatile Market, RSI Strategy Delivers 210% Gain

Advanced6/27/2025, 2:49:00 AM
Gate Research: Between June 10 and June 23, 2025, BTC fluctuated steadily within the 100,000 to 110,000 USDT range, with the long-short ratio hovering between 0.9 and 1.1, indicating an unclear overall trend. In contrast, ETH experienced a deeper pullback, showing weaker momentum and subdued market sentiment. BTC futures open interest dropped to a one-month low, suggesting that long-positioned leverage traders actively reduced exposure due to a lack of fresh capital inflows. ETH open interest also declined, with trading activity weakening and short-term market enthusiasm fading significantly. While geopolitical tensions have heightened risk-off sentiment, the market structure has yet to improve. Long liquidations have consistently exceeded short ones, implying that despite strong buying impulses, there is insufficient trend support. A quantitative analysis focusing on the “RSI Trend Reversal Strategy” demonstrated promising short-term trading potential, achieving over 210% cumulative returns on SUI through an

Preface

This biweekly quant report (June 10 to June 23, 2025) focuses on the market performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum, offering a systematic analysis of key indicators such as long-short ratios, open interest, and funding rates to provide a quantitative interpretation of recent market trends. The strategy section highlights the practical application of the “RSI Trend Reversal Strategy” across the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins), detailing the strategy’s logic, signal criteria, and execution process. Through parameter tuning and historical backtesting, the strategy demonstrates strong stability in trend identification and risk management. Compared to simply holding BTC and ETH, this approach delivers superior returns and drawdown control, offering a practical and disciplined framework for quantitative trading.

Summary

  • Over the past two weeks, BTC has been trading within a stable range between 100,000 and 110,000 USDT, with the long-short ratio hovering between 0.9 and 1.1, indicating an unclear directional bias. ETH, on the other hand, experienced a more significant pullback, showing weak momentum and subdued market sentiment.
  • BTC open interest has fallen to a one-month low, suggesting that leveraged long positions are being actively reduced and that the market lacks fresh capital inflows. ETH open interest has also declined, accompanied by reduced trading activity and fading short-term interest.
  • Funding rates for both BTC and ETH remain flat within a narrow ±0.01% range, reflecting balanced long and short positions and a lack of directional conviction. Most investors are staying on the sidelines, awaiting clearer market signals.
  • Geopolitical tensions have triggered risk-off sentiment, but the market structure remains unimproved. Long liquidations continue to exceed short ones, indicating that despite strong buying momentum, there is a lack of solid trend support.
  • The quantitative section highlights the “RSI Trend Reversal Strategy,” which delivered a cumulative return of over 210% on SUI by capitalizing on oversold bounce setups, demonstrating strong potential for short-term trading opportunities.

Market Overview

To systematically present the current capital behavior and structural shifts in the cryptocurrency market, this report analyzes five key dimensions: the price volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum, long-short ratio (LSR), open interest, funding rates, and liquidation data. These indicators collectively capture market trends, investor sentiment, and risk dynamics, offering a comprehensive view of trading intensity and structural characteristics. The following sections will examine recent changes in each metric since June 10.

1. Price Volatility Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum

According to CoinGecko data, BTC has remained range-bound between 100,000 and 110,000 USDT, demonstrating a relatively steady performance with mild price volatility and strong downside resilience. In contrast, ETH has repeatedly failed to break above the 2,600 USDT level, showing weak momentum and limited buying pressure, resulting in a noticeably weaker trend. Particularly in late June, both ETH and BTC declined simultaneously, with ETH falling below 2,300 USDT to reach a monthly low, indicating waning market confidence in its short-term outlook.

Structurally, while BTC experienced short-term corrections, it has largely stayed above key support levels without a clear breakdown, suggesting that capital remains positioned for mid- to long-term allocations. ETH, however, has been constrained by technical weakness and declining trading volumes. Its MACD momentum has been slow to recover, intensifying short-term price consolidation. Compared to BTC, ETH has been more sensitive to market volatility, with investors adopting a more cautious and defensive stance.【1】【2】【3】

On the policy front, the U.S. passed the GENIUS Act on June 17, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. At the same time, the newly appointed SEC Chair has begun repealing several crypto-related proposals from the previous administration, signaling a more relaxed regulatory stance. Despite the broadly positive regulatory developments, the market failed to rally significantly, indicating that investors remain more focused on geopolitical and macroeconomic variables.

Geopolitically, reports on June 23 that Iran was considering blocking the Strait of Hormuz triggered a spike in global risk-off sentiment. Investors feared an escalation in the Middle East could push up energy prices and reignite inflation. BTC briefly dropped below 100,000 USDT and ETH fell below 2,200 USDT, highlighting renewed concerns over crypto assets’ lack of safe-haven properties amid macro uncertainty. Although this event occurred on June 23, its market impact continued into the following day due to delayed reporting and investor reaction. Subsequently, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, easing geopolitical tensions and triggering a broad rebound in major cryptocurrencies like BTC.

Overall, BTC has shown stronger resilience within its consolidation structure, attracting relatively more support from investors. ETH, by contrast, remains under dual pressure from technical weakness and external newsflow. Looking ahead, key focus areas include the Fed’s stance on inflation and employment, especially whether its messaging remains hawkish, as well as how markets respond to a prolonged period of elevated interest rates. Additionally, trends in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and the potential resurgence of Ethereum’s Layer 2 ecosystem will be critical in gauging risk appetite recovery and the likelihood of a broader market rebound.

Figure 1: BTC consolidates steadily between 100,000 and 110,000 USDT; ETH shows weaker momentum and sentiment amid deeper pullbacks.

In terms of volatility, ETH has exhibited consistently higher volatility than BTC, particularly during periods of rapid market rebounds and corrections. ETH’s price movements became noticeably more erratic at key turning points, suggesting it is more susceptible to short-term capital flows and sentiment-driven trading. Several sudden spikes in ETH volatility were observed during the period, reflecting intense short-term speculation and frequent inflows and outflows of funds.

In contrast, BTC’s volatility profile has been relatively stable. While there were some upticks, both the magnitude and frequency of volatility spikes were lower than those of ETH. This indicates that BTC’s price structure remains more resilient and is favored by longer-term capital allocations. Overall, the current market lacks a sustained narrative or dominant theme, leading BTC to maintain a low-volatility posture—a sign of more stable institutional positioning—while ETH, in the absence of a clear trend, remains more vulnerable to amplified short-term market fluctuations.

Figure 2: ETH’s volatility is significantly higher than BTC’s, indicating its price is more easily influenced by short-term capital flows and market sentiment.

Over the past two weeks, the crypto market has remained in a broadly choppy and weak pattern. BTC has demonstrated strong downside resilience and structural stability, continuing to trade within key support zones and attracting more mid- to long-term capital. In contrast, ETH has faced greater pressure due to technical weakness and sentiment-driven volatility, with repeated failed attempts to break higher and a breakdown below local lows, reflecting a clear lack of market confidence.

In terms of volatility, ETH has shown significantly higher fluctuations than BTC, reacting more sensitively to short-term sentiment and capital shifts—highlighting the market’s cautious stance toward risk assets in the absence of a clear directional trend. On the policy front, while the passage of the GENIUS Act and the easing of SEC regulatory pressure offer some supportive tailwinds, escalating geopolitical tensions and ongoing uncertainty under a high interest rate regime continue to weigh on overall risk appetite.

Overall, BTC continues to exhibit greater resilience within the current structure, though further attention should be paid to changes in liquidity and the extent to which clearer policy guidance can help restore market expectations.

2. Analysis of Long/Short Taker Size Ratio (LSR) for Bitcoin and Ethereum

The Long/Short Taker Size Ratio (LSR) is a key indicator that measures the volume of aggressive buying versus aggressive selling, often used to gauge market sentiment and trend strength. An LSR greater than 1 indicates that the volume of market buys (aggressive longs) exceeds that of market sells (aggressive shorts), suggesting a bullish market bias.

According to Coinglass data, the Long-Short Ratio (LSR) for BTC and ETH has shown a broadly oscillating pattern, failing to establish a consistent correlation with price movements. This reflects a lack of clear market consensus, with sentiment remaining neutral and some degree of hedging activity present. Although BTC briefly rebounded after dipping below 102,000 USDT, the LSR exhibited heightened volatility—suggesting short-term short covering or cautious long-side positioning. Nevertheless, the ratio continued to fluctuate between 0.9 and 1.1, indicating an unclear directional bias and a dominant wait-and-see stance among participants.

ETH, meanwhile, displayed weaker momentum than BTC, falling below 2,300 USDT on June 22. Its LSR also showed notable volatility, repeatedly approaching the 0.9 level—signaling insufficient bullish strength and unresolved selling pressure. Even after minor price recoveries, the LSR failed to sustainably return above 1, underscoring the lack of long-side confidence and a preference for short-term defensive positioning.

Overall, despite localized rebounds in both BTC and ETH, LSR metrics have not strengthened in tandem, suggesting that market activity remains largely tentative and defensive. A sustained move in LSR above 1.05, accompanied by higher trading volume, would be a stronger signal for the market to transition into a more sustained bullish cycle.【4】

Figure 3: BTC rebounded after briefly falling below 102,000 USDT, but its Long-Short Ratio remained range-bound between 0.9 and 1.1, reflecting unclear market direction.

Figure 4: ETH’s LSR repeatedly approached 0.9, reflecting insufficient upward momentum and unresolved selling pressure from short positions.

3. Open Interest Analysis

According to Coinglass data, BTC and ETH open interest has shown a synchronized downward trend over the past two weeks, indicating that, amid weakening market conditions, capital is steadily exiting leveraged positions and overall risk appetite is declining. BTC’s open interest has fallen from its mid-June peak of approximately $76.9 billion to around $67 billion — a one-month low. This suggests that, following the price drop below 102,000 USDT, some long-leveraged positions were actively reduced due to lack of new capital inflows and waning trading enthusiasm.【5】

ETH open interest experienced even greater volatility, dropping over 30% from a high of around $41.4 billion on June 10 to roughly $28 billion. This decline closely correlates with ETH’s price action, as repeated failed attempts to break higher and a drop below 2,300 USDT led to significant long liquidations, signaling a sharp contraction in leveraged risk appetite.

Overall, the cooling of both BTC and ETH derivatives markets and the evident capital outflows reflect a cautious stance among traders toward short-term market direction. Unless there is a clear trend reversal or a favorable macroeconomic catalyst, leveraged activity is unlikely to rebound in the near term. Going forward, signs of price stabilization and a recovery in open interest will be key indicators to watch.

Figure 5: BTC open interest has dropped to a one-month low, indicating that some long-leveraged capital has exited the market. The lack of fresh capital inflows highlights a notable decline in overall trading activity.

4. Funding Rate

Over the past two weeks, BTC and ETH funding rates have remained in a low and narrow range, indicating a lack of clear directional bias and reflecting a broadly neutral market sentiment. BTC funding rates fluctuated within ±0.01%, with frequent alternations between positive and negative values. This suggests that the balance of power between long and short positions is relatively even. Despite brief price rebounds, there has been no significant directional positioning among leveraged traders, indicating that bullish sentiment has not meaningfully strengthened and trend signals remain unclear. 【6】【7】

ETH funding rates showed a similar pattern, hovering between slightly positive and slightly negative values. Notably, around June 20, ETH funding rates turned negative multiple times, reflecting a modest edge for short positions during price weakness. However, the divergence between long and short remains minimal, with most capital focused on short-term hedging and low-leverage strategies.

Overall, the limited fluctuation in funding rates suggests the market is in a wait-and-see mode, offering little momentum for either BTC or ETH. If funding rates begin to rise steadily and turn consistently positive, it may signal increased bullish positioning and a potential trend shift. Conversely, persistently negative funding rates could indicate growing bearish pressure and a potential downturn.

Figure 6: BTC and ETH funding rates remain range-bound near zero, indicating neutral sentiment and a cautious trading environment.

5. Cryptocurrency Liquidation Chart

According to data from Coinglass, long liquidations have significantly outpaced short liquidations over the past two weeks, dominating most trading days. As market rebounds faltered, leveraged long positions were frequently caught off-guard by sudden reversals, resulting in concentrated liquidations. During periods of price pressure and pullbacks, daily long liquidations repeatedly exceeded $500 million, reflecting strong buying enthusiasm but a lack of sustained trend support. 【8】

In contrast, short liquidations have been relatively limited and scattered, suggesting that short positioning remains cautious and capital rotation more disciplined. Overall, the current liquidation structure displays a classic “bull trap” pattern—aggressive long entries followed by rapid unwinding—indicating a market dominated by short-term speculation and high emotional volatility. Under such conditions, the risk of leveraged trading rises significantly, and investors should focus on position management and volatility control to avoid overexposure in uncertain trends.

This phase is characterized by a clear “strong-long, weak-short” liquidation dynamic. While it signals lingering market optimism, it also highlights a lack of confidence in trend continuation, as long positions are frequently entered but quickly forced into liquidation. The high volatility and choppy price action suggest investors should reduce leverage, avoid chasing price spikes, and wait for clearer directional signals before entering new positions.

In summary, the combination of muted funding rates, sideways long-short ratio (LSR), and declining open interest suggests the market remains in a consolidation and rebalancing phase. In the short term, without a clear trend signal or macro catalyst, upside momentum may remain constrained. Going forward, investors should closely monitor whether the LSR can consistently hold above 1.05—especially if accompanied by rising open interest and funding rates—as these would collectively indicate a shift toward a more sustained bullish structure.

Figure 7: Long liquidations continue to outpace short liquidations, reflecting strong bullish sentiment but limited trend support.

In the past two weeks, the cryptocurrency market has generally exhibited a downward consolidation pattern. While Bitcoin’s performance remained relatively resilient, Ethereum came under notable pressure, with both its price structure and volatility indicating a lack of investor confidence in the short-term outlook. Core indicators—including long-short ratios, open interest, funding rates, and liquidation data—collectively point to a market sentiment that is broadly neutral to cautiously bearish. Leverage participation has diminished, and the market is currently dominated by short-term speculation and defensive positioning.

Although there have been some positive developments on the regulatory front—such as the advancement of stablecoin legislation and a more lenient stance from U.S. regulators—geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic uncertainty continue to suppress risk appetite. For the market to break out of its current choppy structure and resume a directional trend, price stability at key support levels must be accompanied by a sustained recovery in long-short ratios (LSR), open interest, and funding rates. Until then, investors are advised to remain cautious and patient, awaiting clearer trend confirmation before re-engaging.

Against the backdrop of a fragile market structure and volatile sentiment, accurately identifying trend direction and optimal entry timing becomes especially critical. The following section focuses on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key technical indicator, to assess its effectiveness in capturing short-term reversal opportunities. Centered around the “RSI Trend Reversal Strategy,” we backtest its performance during recent sideways market conditions and evaluate the strategy’s adaptability and robustness across different tokens and volatility regimes.

Quantitative Analysis – RSI Trend Reversal Strategy

(Disclaimer: All forecasts in this article are based on historical data and market trends and are for informational purposes only. They should not be considered investment advice or a guarantee of future market performance. Investors should carefully assess risks and make prudent decisions when engaging in related investments.)

1. Strategy Overview

The RSI Trend Reversal Strategy is a short-term trading approach that leverages the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to assess market sentiment and identify potential price reversal opportunities. This strategy sets an oversold RSI threshold as the entry signal and an overbought threshold as the exit signal, aiming to capture corrective momentum during periods of extreme market emotion. It focuses exclusively on long positions—buying when RSI indicates oversold conditions and exiting based on take-profit, stop-loss, or RSI reaching the overbought level. By incorporating dynamic stop-loss and take-profit mechanisms, the strategy seeks to secure gains during rebound phases while mitigating losses in case of incorrect signals. It is particularly suited for choppy markets with mean-reverting tendencies.

In this backtest, the strategy was applied to the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins), covering major Layer 1 chains and high-liquidity assets. The goal was to evaluate the strategy’s adaptability and effectiveness across different tokens and market cycles, and to assess its feasibility and robustness for live deployment.

2. Core Parameter Settings

3. Strategy Logic and Operational Mechanism

Entry Condition

  • When there is no current position and the RSI falls below the rsi_oversold threshold, the market is considered to be in an oversold state, triggering a buy signal.

Exit Conditions

  • Overbought Condition: If the RSI rises above the rsi_overbought threshold, it signals a potential trend reversal and triggers a sell signal.
  • Stop-Loss Exit: If the price drops to the buy price × (1 - stop_loss_percent), a stop-loss is triggered.
  • Take-Profit Exit: If the price rises to the buy price × (1 + take_profit_percent), a take-profit exit is triggered.

Live Trade Example Chart

  • Trade Signal Trigger
    The following chart shows the SUI/USDT 1-hour candlestick chart on June 15, 2025, when the strategy triggered an entry signal. After a prolonged decline, the RSI dropped into the oversold zone near 20 in the early hours of the day and quickly rebounded above 40, indicating a potential short-term reversal. At the same time, the MACD fast line began to converge toward the slow line, suggesting momentum recovery, and trading volume showed signs of picking up. Although the price had not yet significantly moved away from the bottom, the combination of RSI rebound from oversold levels and volume support at the low end met the strategy’s “bottom reversal” criteria, triggering a buy signal in anticipation of a subsequent rebound.

Figure 8: SUI/USDT Strategy Entry Point Illustration (June 15, 2025)

  • Trading Action and Outcome
    After completing a rebound the previous day, SUI’s price continued to trend upward within a consolidation phase. The RSI briefly surged above 75, entering the overbought zone. As momentum weakened and the RSI retreated, the strategy triggered an exit based on the overbought condition, locking in profits from the earlier uptrend. Although the price continued to climb slightly after the exit, the MACD lines showed diminishing momentum and shrinking histogram bars, indicating a weakening bullish trend in the short term. Additionally, short-term moving averages began to converge, forming a classic “momentum exhaustion at highs” pattern. This exit aligns with the risk control logic of “taking profit when the rally overheats,” effectively avoiding potential downside pressure. Moving forward, integrating dynamic take-profit or trend-following mechanisms could further improve holding efficiency and overall profitability.

Figure 9: SUI/USDT Strategy Exit Point Illustration (June 16, 2025)

Through the above live trade examples, we clearly demonstrate the entry and exit logic as well as the dynamic risk management mechanism of the RSI strategy amid extreme market sentiment swings. The strategy identifies oversold rebounds and overbought weaknesses using the RSI indicator—entering trades when RSI falls below a set threshold to capture rebound momentum, and exiting positions when RSI returns to the overbought zone or when price hits the take-profit/stop-loss levels. This allows the strategy to maximize short-term gains while managing downside risk.

Built on limited drawdowns, the strategy successfully locked in short-term gains, showcasing its ability to capture reversals and maintain trading discipline in a choppy market. This case not only validates the RSI strategy’s practicality and defensive efficiency in live conditions, but also lays a solid empirical foundation for future improvements, such as parameter optimization, integration with multi-factor signals, or extension to other tradable assets.

4. Practical Backtesting Example

Backtest Parameter Settings
To identify the optimal parameter combination, a systematic grid search was conducted across the following ranges:

  • rsi_overbought:60 to 95 (step size: 5)
  • rsi_oversold:5 to 30 (step size: 5)
  • stop_loss_percent :1% to 2% (step size: 0.5%)
  • take_profit_percent :10% to 16% (step size: 5%)

Using the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins) as test assets, the study backtested 1-hour candlestick data from May 2024 to June 2025. A total of 288 parameter combinations were evaluated, with the top 10 performing sets selected based on annualized return.

Evaluation metrics included annualized return, Sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown, and ROMAD (Return Over Maximum Drawdown), providing a comprehensive view of the strategy’s stability and risk-adjusted performance under varying market conditions.

Figure 10: Performance Comparison of Top 5 Parameter Sets

Strategy Logic Explanation
When the system detects that the RSI indicator has dropped below the predefined oversold threshold, it interprets the price as having entered an extreme low driven by market sentiment. The strategy then immediately triggers a buy operation. This logic is designed to capture early-stage short-term reversals by identifying potential points where buyer momentum may return. It incorporates dynamic take-profit and stop-loss mechanisms to enhance risk control. If the RSI later rises into the overbought zone, or if the price hits the predefined take-profit or stop-loss levels, the system automatically executes an exit to lock in gains or prevent further losses.

For example, the settings used in the SUI backtest were:

  • rsi_oversold= 20 (Buy signal when RSI drops below this value)
  • rsi_overbought = 70 (Sell signal when RSI exceeds this value)
  • stop_loss_percent = 1%
  • take_profit_percent = 15%

This logic combines trend breakout signals with fixed-percentage risk controls, making it suitable for environments with clear directional trends and wave structures. It helps follow the trend while effectively controlling drawdowns to enhance overall trading stability and return quality.

Performance and Results Analysis
The backtest was conducted over the period from May 2024 to June 2025, applying the RSI overbought/oversold logic to the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins). The strategy demonstrated robust cumulative returns, significantly outperforming simple spot Buy and Hold strategies on BTC and ETH. As shown in the chart, the strategy yielded steady gains across assets like SUI, XRP, and DOGE, each achieving cumulative returns above 200%. The strategy successfully captured multiple short-term reversal trades, reflecting strong entry timing and disciplined execution.

By contrast, the spot holding strategies for BTC and ETH exhibited higher volatility, with ETH experiencing a maximum drawdown of over 50%. The RSI-based strategy effectively mitigated downside risk during corrections and range-bound conditions, enabling consistent value accumulation. It showed strong adaptability and generalization across different assets, proving effective not only in trending markets but also amid volatile and uncertain conditions.

Overall, the RSI reversal strategy strikes a well-balanced tradeoff between return, risk control, and stability. It shows strong potential for live deployment and multi-asset expansion. Future improvements may include incorporating volume dynamics or volatility factors to further optimize entry quality and exit timing, enhancing efficiency across various market cycles.

Figure 11: One-Year Cumulative Return Comparison Between Five Optimal Parameter Strategies and BTC/ETH Buy-and-Hold Strategies

5. Strategy Summary

RSI Trend Reversal Strategy utilizes the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as the core indicator for entry and exit signals, combined with dynamic take-profit and stop-loss mechanisms. It has demonstrated strong risk control and stable return performance across multiple mainstream crypto assets. During the backtest period, the strategy accurately captured numerous short-term reversal opportunities, particularly excelling in choppy and highly volatile market conditions. Overall, its performance significantly outperformed traditional buy-and-hold strategies.

Across multiple tokens, backtest results show outstanding performance for assets like SUI, XRP, and DOGE, with maximum cumulative returns exceeding 210%, while effectively avoiding the deep drawdowns experienced by holding ETH spot positions. This further confirms the strategy’s adaptability and robustness in live trading environments.

Notably, despite most tokens showing win rates below 50%, the strategy still achieved positive cumulative returns through a favorable risk-reward structure and strict risk controls. This highlights its effectiveness in managing position sizing and controlling losses even in low-win-rate environments.

In summary, the RSI strategy strikes a solid balance between drawdown control, return efficiency, and capital utilization, making it particularly suitable for high-volatility, high-uncertainty market environments. Future enhancements could include combining Bollinger Band ranges, volume-based filters, or volatility screens to improve signal quality and extend the strategy into multi-timeframe, multi-asset quantitative trading systems—further enhancing system stability and scalability.

Conclusion

From June 10 to June 23, 2025, the crypto market remained in a weakly bearish consolidation phase. While BTC showed relative structural resilience, ETH came under significant pressure, repeatedly failing to break through resistance and hitting new local lows, reflecting weakened market confidence. In terms of volatility, ETH displayed much higher fluctuations than BTC, indicating stronger influence from short-term sentiment and capital flows, and a more speculative trading profile.

The Long/Short Ratio (LSR) for both assets hovered between 0.9 and 1.1, showing a lack of directional consensus, with capital behavior leaning toward defensive and hedging strategies. Simultaneously, open interest in futures contracts continued to decline, indicating that leveraged positions were being actively reduced and overall risk appetite was contracting. Funding rates remained flat near zero, showing no clear bullish or bearish dominance—further confirming a neutral market sentiment.

Liquidation data showed a consistent dominance of long liquidations over shorts, reflecting a typical “buy-high-fail-fast” pattern, where bullish attempts lacked follow-through and were met with sharp reversals. This indicates that while there was optimism in the market, it lacked sustainable support, and overall price action was erratic and trendless.

In general, the market remains in a short-term speculative phase, constrained by the absence of strong macro catalysts or narrative-driven momentum. Investors should limit leverage, avoid chasing price highs, and closely monitor capital structure, open interest shifts, and key support levels while waiting for a more defined trend to emerge.

In such trendless and sentiment-driven conditions, mean-reversion strategies like RSI-based quant models offer tactical advantages. This report focuses on evaluating the “RSI Trend Reversal Strategy” for its practical usability and stability across varying market conditions. By setting RSI oversold thresholds to capture bottoming rebounds and pairing them with overbought exit signals or fixed stop/take-profit ratios, the strategy delivers solid results.

Backtesting on major tokens such as SUI, XRP, and DOGE reveals cumulative returns exceeding 200% with controlled drawdowns. Despite sub-50% win rates, the strategy’s clear exit logic and favorable risk/reward profile enabled consistent long-term gains—demonstrating strong capital management and trading discipline.

Overall, the strategy shows an effective balance between return, stability, and execution efficiency and presents potential for real-world deployment. However, its performance may still be affected by market volatility, extreme conditions, or signal degradation. Future improvements may include combining additional quantitative factors and risk-control modules to explore its scalability across multiple timeframes and assets.


References:

  1. CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/
  2. Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
  3. Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
  4. Coinglass, https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio
  5. Coinglass, https://www.coinglass.com/BitcoinOpenInterest?utm_source=chatgpt.com
  6. Gate, https://www.gate.com/futures_market_info/BTC_USD/capital_rate_history
  7. Gate, https://www.gate.com/futures/introduction/funding-rate-history?from=USDT-M&contract=ETH_USDT
  8. Coinglass, https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/Liquidations



Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that provides deep content for readers, including technical analysis, market insights, industry research, trend forecasting, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

Disclaimer
Investing in cryptocurrency markets involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct their own research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages arising from such decisions.

Author: Shirley
Reviewer(s): Ember, Mark
* The information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by Gate.
* This article may not be reproduced, transmitted or copied without referencing Gate. Contravention is an infringement of Copyright Act and may be subject to legal action.

Gate Research: ETH Slides in Volatile Market, RSI Strategy Delivers 210% Gain

Advanced6/27/2025, 2:49:00 AM
Gate Research: Between June 10 and June 23, 2025, BTC fluctuated steadily within the 100,000 to 110,000 USDT range, with the long-short ratio hovering between 0.9 and 1.1, indicating an unclear overall trend. In contrast, ETH experienced a deeper pullback, showing weaker momentum and subdued market sentiment. BTC futures open interest dropped to a one-month low, suggesting that long-positioned leverage traders actively reduced exposure due to a lack of fresh capital inflows. ETH open interest also declined, with trading activity weakening and short-term market enthusiasm fading significantly. While geopolitical tensions have heightened risk-off sentiment, the market structure has yet to improve. Long liquidations have consistently exceeded short ones, implying that despite strong buying impulses, there is insufficient trend support. A quantitative analysis focusing on the “RSI Trend Reversal Strategy” demonstrated promising short-term trading potential, achieving over 210% cumulative returns on SUI through an

Preface

This biweekly quant report (June 10 to June 23, 2025) focuses on the market performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum, offering a systematic analysis of key indicators such as long-short ratios, open interest, and funding rates to provide a quantitative interpretation of recent market trends. The strategy section highlights the practical application of the “RSI Trend Reversal Strategy” across the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins), detailing the strategy’s logic, signal criteria, and execution process. Through parameter tuning and historical backtesting, the strategy demonstrates strong stability in trend identification and risk management. Compared to simply holding BTC and ETH, this approach delivers superior returns and drawdown control, offering a practical and disciplined framework for quantitative trading.

Summary

  • Over the past two weeks, BTC has been trading within a stable range between 100,000 and 110,000 USDT, with the long-short ratio hovering between 0.9 and 1.1, indicating an unclear directional bias. ETH, on the other hand, experienced a more significant pullback, showing weak momentum and subdued market sentiment.
  • BTC open interest has fallen to a one-month low, suggesting that leveraged long positions are being actively reduced and that the market lacks fresh capital inflows. ETH open interest has also declined, accompanied by reduced trading activity and fading short-term interest.
  • Funding rates for both BTC and ETH remain flat within a narrow ±0.01% range, reflecting balanced long and short positions and a lack of directional conviction. Most investors are staying on the sidelines, awaiting clearer market signals.
  • Geopolitical tensions have triggered risk-off sentiment, but the market structure remains unimproved. Long liquidations continue to exceed short ones, indicating that despite strong buying momentum, there is a lack of solid trend support.
  • The quantitative section highlights the “RSI Trend Reversal Strategy,” which delivered a cumulative return of over 210% on SUI by capitalizing on oversold bounce setups, demonstrating strong potential for short-term trading opportunities.

Market Overview

To systematically present the current capital behavior and structural shifts in the cryptocurrency market, this report analyzes five key dimensions: the price volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum, long-short ratio (LSR), open interest, funding rates, and liquidation data. These indicators collectively capture market trends, investor sentiment, and risk dynamics, offering a comprehensive view of trading intensity and structural characteristics. The following sections will examine recent changes in each metric since June 10.

1. Price Volatility Analysis of Bitcoin and Ethereum

According to CoinGecko data, BTC has remained range-bound between 100,000 and 110,000 USDT, demonstrating a relatively steady performance with mild price volatility and strong downside resilience. In contrast, ETH has repeatedly failed to break above the 2,600 USDT level, showing weak momentum and limited buying pressure, resulting in a noticeably weaker trend. Particularly in late June, both ETH and BTC declined simultaneously, with ETH falling below 2,300 USDT to reach a monthly low, indicating waning market confidence in its short-term outlook.

Structurally, while BTC experienced short-term corrections, it has largely stayed above key support levels without a clear breakdown, suggesting that capital remains positioned for mid- to long-term allocations. ETH, however, has been constrained by technical weakness and declining trading volumes. Its MACD momentum has been slow to recover, intensifying short-term price consolidation. Compared to BTC, ETH has been more sensitive to market volatility, with investors adopting a more cautious and defensive stance.【1】【2】【3】

On the policy front, the U.S. passed the GENIUS Act on June 17, establishing a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins. At the same time, the newly appointed SEC Chair has begun repealing several crypto-related proposals from the previous administration, signaling a more relaxed regulatory stance. Despite the broadly positive regulatory developments, the market failed to rally significantly, indicating that investors remain more focused on geopolitical and macroeconomic variables.

Geopolitically, reports on June 23 that Iran was considering blocking the Strait of Hormuz triggered a spike in global risk-off sentiment. Investors feared an escalation in the Middle East could push up energy prices and reignite inflation. BTC briefly dropped below 100,000 USDT and ETH fell below 2,200 USDT, highlighting renewed concerns over crypto assets’ lack of safe-haven properties amid macro uncertainty. Although this event occurred on June 23, its market impact continued into the following day due to delayed reporting and investor reaction. Subsequently, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, easing geopolitical tensions and triggering a broad rebound in major cryptocurrencies like BTC.

Overall, BTC has shown stronger resilience within its consolidation structure, attracting relatively more support from investors. ETH, by contrast, remains under dual pressure from technical weakness and external newsflow. Looking ahead, key focus areas include the Fed’s stance on inflation and employment, especially whether its messaging remains hawkish, as well as how markets respond to a prolonged period of elevated interest rates. Additionally, trends in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and the potential resurgence of Ethereum’s Layer 2 ecosystem will be critical in gauging risk appetite recovery and the likelihood of a broader market rebound.

Figure 1: BTC consolidates steadily between 100,000 and 110,000 USDT; ETH shows weaker momentum and sentiment amid deeper pullbacks.

In terms of volatility, ETH has exhibited consistently higher volatility than BTC, particularly during periods of rapid market rebounds and corrections. ETH’s price movements became noticeably more erratic at key turning points, suggesting it is more susceptible to short-term capital flows and sentiment-driven trading. Several sudden spikes in ETH volatility were observed during the period, reflecting intense short-term speculation and frequent inflows and outflows of funds.

In contrast, BTC’s volatility profile has been relatively stable. While there were some upticks, both the magnitude and frequency of volatility spikes were lower than those of ETH. This indicates that BTC’s price structure remains more resilient and is favored by longer-term capital allocations. Overall, the current market lacks a sustained narrative or dominant theme, leading BTC to maintain a low-volatility posture—a sign of more stable institutional positioning—while ETH, in the absence of a clear trend, remains more vulnerable to amplified short-term market fluctuations.

Figure 2: ETH’s volatility is significantly higher than BTC’s, indicating its price is more easily influenced by short-term capital flows and market sentiment.

Over the past two weeks, the crypto market has remained in a broadly choppy and weak pattern. BTC has demonstrated strong downside resilience and structural stability, continuing to trade within key support zones and attracting more mid- to long-term capital. In contrast, ETH has faced greater pressure due to technical weakness and sentiment-driven volatility, with repeated failed attempts to break higher and a breakdown below local lows, reflecting a clear lack of market confidence.

In terms of volatility, ETH has shown significantly higher fluctuations than BTC, reacting more sensitively to short-term sentiment and capital shifts—highlighting the market’s cautious stance toward risk assets in the absence of a clear directional trend. On the policy front, while the passage of the GENIUS Act and the easing of SEC regulatory pressure offer some supportive tailwinds, escalating geopolitical tensions and ongoing uncertainty under a high interest rate regime continue to weigh on overall risk appetite.

Overall, BTC continues to exhibit greater resilience within the current structure, though further attention should be paid to changes in liquidity and the extent to which clearer policy guidance can help restore market expectations.

2. Analysis of Long/Short Taker Size Ratio (LSR) for Bitcoin and Ethereum

The Long/Short Taker Size Ratio (LSR) is a key indicator that measures the volume of aggressive buying versus aggressive selling, often used to gauge market sentiment and trend strength. An LSR greater than 1 indicates that the volume of market buys (aggressive longs) exceeds that of market sells (aggressive shorts), suggesting a bullish market bias.

According to Coinglass data, the Long-Short Ratio (LSR) for BTC and ETH has shown a broadly oscillating pattern, failing to establish a consistent correlation with price movements. This reflects a lack of clear market consensus, with sentiment remaining neutral and some degree of hedging activity present. Although BTC briefly rebounded after dipping below 102,000 USDT, the LSR exhibited heightened volatility—suggesting short-term short covering or cautious long-side positioning. Nevertheless, the ratio continued to fluctuate between 0.9 and 1.1, indicating an unclear directional bias and a dominant wait-and-see stance among participants.

ETH, meanwhile, displayed weaker momentum than BTC, falling below 2,300 USDT on June 22. Its LSR also showed notable volatility, repeatedly approaching the 0.9 level—signaling insufficient bullish strength and unresolved selling pressure. Even after minor price recoveries, the LSR failed to sustainably return above 1, underscoring the lack of long-side confidence and a preference for short-term defensive positioning.

Overall, despite localized rebounds in both BTC and ETH, LSR metrics have not strengthened in tandem, suggesting that market activity remains largely tentative and defensive. A sustained move in LSR above 1.05, accompanied by higher trading volume, would be a stronger signal for the market to transition into a more sustained bullish cycle.【4】

Figure 3: BTC rebounded after briefly falling below 102,000 USDT, but its Long-Short Ratio remained range-bound between 0.9 and 1.1, reflecting unclear market direction.

Figure 4: ETH’s LSR repeatedly approached 0.9, reflecting insufficient upward momentum and unresolved selling pressure from short positions.

3. Open Interest Analysis

According to Coinglass data, BTC and ETH open interest has shown a synchronized downward trend over the past two weeks, indicating that, amid weakening market conditions, capital is steadily exiting leveraged positions and overall risk appetite is declining. BTC’s open interest has fallen from its mid-June peak of approximately $76.9 billion to around $67 billion — a one-month low. This suggests that, following the price drop below 102,000 USDT, some long-leveraged positions were actively reduced due to lack of new capital inflows and waning trading enthusiasm.【5】

ETH open interest experienced even greater volatility, dropping over 30% from a high of around $41.4 billion on June 10 to roughly $28 billion. This decline closely correlates with ETH’s price action, as repeated failed attempts to break higher and a drop below 2,300 USDT led to significant long liquidations, signaling a sharp contraction in leveraged risk appetite.

Overall, the cooling of both BTC and ETH derivatives markets and the evident capital outflows reflect a cautious stance among traders toward short-term market direction. Unless there is a clear trend reversal or a favorable macroeconomic catalyst, leveraged activity is unlikely to rebound in the near term. Going forward, signs of price stabilization and a recovery in open interest will be key indicators to watch.

Figure 5: BTC open interest has dropped to a one-month low, indicating that some long-leveraged capital has exited the market. The lack of fresh capital inflows highlights a notable decline in overall trading activity.

4. Funding Rate

Over the past two weeks, BTC and ETH funding rates have remained in a low and narrow range, indicating a lack of clear directional bias and reflecting a broadly neutral market sentiment. BTC funding rates fluctuated within ±0.01%, with frequent alternations between positive and negative values. This suggests that the balance of power between long and short positions is relatively even. Despite brief price rebounds, there has been no significant directional positioning among leveraged traders, indicating that bullish sentiment has not meaningfully strengthened and trend signals remain unclear. 【6】【7】

ETH funding rates showed a similar pattern, hovering between slightly positive and slightly negative values. Notably, around June 20, ETH funding rates turned negative multiple times, reflecting a modest edge for short positions during price weakness. However, the divergence between long and short remains minimal, with most capital focused on short-term hedging and low-leverage strategies.

Overall, the limited fluctuation in funding rates suggests the market is in a wait-and-see mode, offering little momentum for either BTC or ETH. If funding rates begin to rise steadily and turn consistently positive, it may signal increased bullish positioning and a potential trend shift. Conversely, persistently negative funding rates could indicate growing bearish pressure and a potential downturn.

Figure 6: BTC and ETH funding rates remain range-bound near zero, indicating neutral sentiment and a cautious trading environment.

5. Cryptocurrency Liquidation Chart

According to data from Coinglass, long liquidations have significantly outpaced short liquidations over the past two weeks, dominating most trading days. As market rebounds faltered, leveraged long positions were frequently caught off-guard by sudden reversals, resulting in concentrated liquidations. During periods of price pressure and pullbacks, daily long liquidations repeatedly exceeded $500 million, reflecting strong buying enthusiasm but a lack of sustained trend support. 【8】

In contrast, short liquidations have been relatively limited and scattered, suggesting that short positioning remains cautious and capital rotation more disciplined. Overall, the current liquidation structure displays a classic “bull trap” pattern—aggressive long entries followed by rapid unwinding—indicating a market dominated by short-term speculation and high emotional volatility. Under such conditions, the risk of leveraged trading rises significantly, and investors should focus on position management and volatility control to avoid overexposure in uncertain trends.

This phase is characterized by a clear “strong-long, weak-short” liquidation dynamic. While it signals lingering market optimism, it also highlights a lack of confidence in trend continuation, as long positions are frequently entered but quickly forced into liquidation. The high volatility and choppy price action suggest investors should reduce leverage, avoid chasing price spikes, and wait for clearer directional signals before entering new positions.

In summary, the combination of muted funding rates, sideways long-short ratio (LSR), and declining open interest suggests the market remains in a consolidation and rebalancing phase. In the short term, without a clear trend signal or macro catalyst, upside momentum may remain constrained. Going forward, investors should closely monitor whether the LSR can consistently hold above 1.05—especially if accompanied by rising open interest and funding rates—as these would collectively indicate a shift toward a more sustained bullish structure.

Figure 7: Long liquidations continue to outpace short liquidations, reflecting strong bullish sentiment but limited trend support.

In the past two weeks, the cryptocurrency market has generally exhibited a downward consolidation pattern. While Bitcoin’s performance remained relatively resilient, Ethereum came under notable pressure, with both its price structure and volatility indicating a lack of investor confidence in the short-term outlook. Core indicators—including long-short ratios, open interest, funding rates, and liquidation data—collectively point to a market sentiment that is broadly neutral to cautiously bearish. Leverage participation has diminished, and the market is currently dominated by short-term speculation and defensive positioning.

Although there have been some positive developments on the regulatory front—such as the advancement of stablecoin legislation and a more lenient stance from U.S. regulators—geopolitical tensions and broader macroeconomic uncertainty continue to suppress risk appetite. For the market to break out of its current choppy structure and resume a directional trend, price stability at key support levels must be accompanied by a sustained recovery in long-short ratios (LSR), open interest, and funding rates. Until then, investors are advised to remain cautious and patient, awaiting clearer trend confirmation before re-engaging.

Against the backdrop of a fragile market structure and volatile sentiment, accurately identifying trend direction and optimal entry timing becomes especially critical. The following section focuses on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a key technical indicator, to assess its effectiveness in capturing short-term reversal opportunities. Centered around the “RSI Trend Reversal Strategy,” we backtest its performance during recent sideways market conditions and evaluate the strategy’s adaptability and robustness across different tokens and volatility regimes.

Quantitative Analysis – RSI Trend Reversal Strategy

(Disclaimer: All forecasts in this article are based on historical data and market trends and are for informational purposes only. They should not be considered investment advice or a guarantee of future market performance. Investors should carefully assess risks and make prudent decisions when engaging in related investments.)

1. Strategy Overview

The RSI Trend Reversal Strategy is a short-term trading approach that leverages the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to assess market sentiment and identify potential price reversal opportunities. This strategy sets an oversold RSI threshold as the entry signal and an overbought threshold as the exit signal, aiming to capture corrective momentum during periods of extreme market emotion. It focuses exclusively on long positions—buying when RSI indicates oversold conditions and exiting based on take-profit, stop-loss, or RSI reaching the overbought level. By incorporating dynamic stop-loss and take-profit mechanisms, the strategy seeks to secure gains during rebound phases while mitigating losses in case of incorrect signals. It is particularly suited for choppy markets with mean-reverting tendencies.

In this backtest, the strategy was applied to the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins), covering major Layer 1 chains and high-liquidity assets. The goal was to evaluate the strategy’s adaptability and effectiveness across different tokens and market cycles, and to assess its feasibility and robustness for live deployment.

2. Core Parameter Settings

3. Strategy Logic and Operational Mechanism

Entry Condition

  • When there is no current position and the RSI falls below the rsi_oversold threshold, the market is considered to be in an oversold state, triggering a buy signal.

Exit Conditions

  • Overbought Condition: If the RSI rises above the rsi_overbought threshold, it signals a potential trend reversal and triggers a sell signal.
  • Stop-Loss Exit: If the price drops to the buy price × (1 - stop_loss_percent), a stop-loss is triggered.
  • Take-Profit Exit: If the price rises to the buy price × (1 + take_profit_percent), a take-profit exit is triggered.

Live Trade Example Chart

  • Trade Signal Trigger
    The following chart shows the SUI/USDT 1-hour candlestick chart on June 15, 2025, when the strategy triggered an entry signal. After a prolonged decline, the RSI dropped into the oversold zone near 20 in the early hours of the day and quickly rebounded above 40, indicating a potential short-term reversal. At the same time, the MACD fast line began to converge toward the slow line, suggesting momentum recovery, and trading volume showed signs of picking up. Although the price had not yet significantly moved away from the bottom, the combination of RSI rebound from oversold levels and volume support at the low end met the strategy’s “bottom reversal” criteria, triggering a buy signal in anticipation of a subsequent rebound.

Figure 8: SUI/USDT Strategy Entry Point Illustration (June 15, 2025)

  • Trading Action and Outcome
    After completing a rebound the previous day, SUI’s price continued to trend upward within a consolidation phase. The RSI briefly surged above 75, entering the overbought zone. As momentum weakened and the RSI retreated, the strategy triggered an exit based on the overbought condition, locking in profits from the earlier uptrend. Although the price continued to climb slightly after the exit, the MACD lines showed diminishing momentum and shrinking histogram bars, indicating a weakening bullish trend in the short term. Additionally, short-term moving averages began to converge, forming a classic “momentum exhaustion at highs” pattern. This exit aligns with the risk control logic of “taking profit when the rally overheats,” effectively avoiding potential downside pressure. Moving forward, integrating dynamic take-profit or trend-following mechanisms could further improve holding efficiency and overall profitability.

Figure 9: SUI/USDT Strategy Exit Point Illustration (June 16, 2025)

Through the above live trade examples, we clearly demonstrate the entry and exit logic as well as the dynamic risk management mechanism of the RSI strategy amid extreme market sentiment swings. The strategy identifies oversold rebounds and overbought weaknesses using the RSI indicator—entering trades when RSI falls below a set threshold to capture rebound momentum, and exiting positions when RSI returns to the overbought zone or when price hits the take-profit/stop-loss levels. This allows the strategy to maximize short-term gains while managing downside risk.

Built on limited drawdowns, the strategy successfully locked in short-term gains, showcasing its ability to capture reversals and maintain trading discipline in a choppy market. This case not only validates the RSI strategy’s practicality and defensive efficiency in live conditions, but also lays a solid empirical foundation for future improvements, such as parameter optimization, integration with multi-factor signals, or extension to other tradable assets.

4. Practical Backtesting Example

Backtest Parameter Settings
To identify the optimal parameter combination, a systematic grid search was conducted across the following ranges:

  • rsi_overbought:60 to 95 (step size: 5)
  • rsi_oversold:5 to 30 (step size: 5)
  • stop_loss_percent :1% to 2% (step size: 0.5%)
  • take_profit_percent :10% to 16% (step size: 5%)

Using the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins) as test assets, the study backtested 1-hour candlestick data from May 2024 to June 2025. A total of 288 parameter combinations were evaluated, with the top 10 performing sets selected based on annualized return.

Evaluation metrics included annualized return, Sharpe ratio, maximum drawdown, and ROMAD (Return Over Maximum Drawdown), providing a comprehensive view of the strategy’s stability and risk-adjusted performance under varying market conditions.

Figure 10: Performance Comparison of Top 5 Parameter Sets

Strategy Logic Explanation
When the system detects that the RSI indicator has dropped below the predefined oversold threshold, it interprets the price as having entered an extreme low driven by market sentiment. The strategy then immediately triggers a buy operation. This logic is designed to capture early-stage short-term reversals by identifying potential points where buyer momentum may return. It incorporates dynamic take-profit and stop-loss mechanisms to enhance risk control. If the RSI later rises into the overbought zone, or if the price hits the predefined take-profit or stop-loss levels, the system automatically executes an exit to lock in gains or prevent further losses.

For example, the settings used in the SUI backtest were:

  • rsi_oversold= 20 (Buy signal when RSI drops below this value)
  • rsi_overbought = 70 (Sell signal when RSI exceeds this value)
  • stop_loss_percent = 1%
  • take_profit_percent = 15%

This logic combines trend breakout signals with fixed-percentage risk controls, making it suitable for environments with clear directional trends and wave structures. It helps follow the trend while effectively controlling drawdowns to enhance overall trading stability and return quality.

Performance and Results Analysis
The backtest was conducted over the period from May 2024 to June 2025, applying the RSI overbought/oversold logic to the top 10 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization (excluding stablecoins). The strategy demonstrated robust cumulative returns, significantly outperforming simple spot Buy and Hold strategies on BTC and ETH. As shown in the chart, the strategy yielded steady gains across assets like SUI, XRP, and DOGE, each achieving cumulative returns above 200%. The strategy successfully captured multiple short-term reversal trades, reflecting strong entry timing and disciplined execution.

By contrast, the spot holding strategies for BTC and ETH exhibited higher volatility, with ETH experiencing a maximum drawdown of over 50%. The RSI-based strategy effectively mitigated downside risk during corrections and range-bound conditions, enabling consistent value accumulation. It showed strong adaptability and generalization across different assets, proving effective not only in trending markets but also amid volatile and uncertain conditions.

Overall, the RSI reversal strategy strikes a well-balanced tradeoff between return, risk control, and stability. It shows strong potential for live deployment and multi-asset expansion. Future improvements may include incorporating volume dynamics or volatility factors to further optimize entry quality and exit timing, enhancing efficiency across various market cycles.

Figure 11: One-Year Cumulative Return Comparison Between Five Optimal Parameter Strategies and BTC/ETH Buy-and-Hold Strategies

5. Strategy Summary

RSI Trend Reversal Strategy utilizes the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as the core indicator for entry and exit signals, combined with dynamic take-profit and stop-loss mechanisms. It has demonstrated strong risk control and stable return performance across multiple mainstream crypto assets. During the backtest period, the strategy accurately captured numerous short-term reversal opportunities, particularly excelling in choppy and highly volatile market conditions. Overall, its performance significantly outperformed traditional buy-and-hold strategies.

Across multiple tokens, backtest results show outstanding performance for assets like SUI, XRP, and DOGE, with maximum cumulative returns exceeding 210%, while effectively avoiding the deep drawdowns experienced by holding ETH spot positions. This further confirms the strategy’s adaptability and robustness in live trading environments.

Notably, despite most tokens showing win rates below 50%, the strategy still achieved positive cumulative returns through a favorable risk-reward structure and strict risk controls. This highlights its effectiveness in managing position sizing and controlling losses even in low-win-rate environments.

In summary, the RSI strategy strikes a solid balance between drawdown control, return efficiency, and capital utilization, making it particularly suitable for high-volatility, high-uncertainty market environments. Future enhancements could include combining Bollinger Band ranges, volume-based filters, or volatility screens to improve signal quality and extend the strategy into multi-timeframe, multi-asset quantitative trading systems—further enhancing system stability and scalability.

Conclusion

From June 10 to June 23, 2025, the crypto market remained in a weakly bearish consolidation phase. While BTC showed relative structural resilience, ETH came under significant pressure, repeatedly failing to break through resistance and hitting new local lows, reflecting weakened market confidence. In terms of volatility, ETH displayed much higher fluctuations than BTC, indicating stronger influence from short-term sentiment and capital flows, and a more speculative trading profile.

The Long/Short Ratio (LSR) for both assets hovered between 0.9 and 1.1, showing a lack of directional consensus, with capital behavior leaning toward defensive and hedging strategies. Simultaneously, open interest in futures contracts continued to decline, indicating that leveraged positions were being actively reduced and overall risk appetite was contracting. Funding rates remained flat near zero, showing no clear bullish or bearish dominance—further confirming a neutral market sentiment.

Liquidation data showed a consistent dominance of long liquidations over shorts, reflecting a typical “buy-high-fail-fast” pattern, where bullish attempts lacked follow-through and were met with sharp reversals. This indicates that while there was optimism in the market, it lacked sustainable support, and overall price action was erratic and trendless.

In general, the market remains in a short-term speculative phase, constrained by the absence of strong macro catalysts or narrative-driven momentum. Investors should limit leverage, avoid chasing price highs, and closely monitor capital structure, open interest shifts, and key support levels while waiting for a more defined trend to emerge.

In such trendless and sentiment-driven conditions, mean-reversion strategies like RSI-based quant models offer tactical advantages. This report focuses on evaluating the “RSI Trend Reversal Strategy” for its practical usability and stability across varying market conditions. By setting RSI oversold thresholds to capture bottoming rebounds and pairing them with overbought exit signals or fixed stop/take-profit ratios, the strategy delivers solid results.

Backtesting on major tokens such as SUI, XRP, and DOGE reveals cumulative returns exceeding 200% with controlled drawdowns. Despite sub-50% win rates, the strategy’s clear exit logic and favorable risk/reward profile enabled consistent long-term gains—demonstrating strong capital management and trading discipline.

Overall, the strategy shows an effective balance between return, stability, and execution efficiency and presents potential for real-world deployment. However, its performance may still be affected by market volatility, extreme conditions, or signal degradation. Future improvements may include combining additional quantitative factors and risk-control modules to explore its scalability across multiple timeframes and assets.


References:

  1. CoinGecko, https://www.coingecko.com/
  2. Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/BTC_USDT
  3. Gate, https://www.gate.com/trade/ETH_USDT
  4. Coinglass, https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio
  5. Coinglass, https://www.coinglass.com/BitcoinOpenInterest?utm_source=chatgpt.com
  6. Gate, https://www.gate.com/futures_market_info/BTC_USD/capital_rate_history
  7. Gate, https://www.gate.com/futures/introduction/funding-rate-history?from=USDT-M&contract=ETH_USDT
  8. Coinglass, https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/Liquidations



Gate Research is a comprehensive blockchain and cryptocurrency research platform that provides deep content for readers, including technical analysis, market insights, industry research, trend forecasting, and macroeconomic policy analysis.

Disclaimer
Investing in cryptocurrency markets involves high risk. Users are advised to conduct their own research and fully understand the nature of the assets and products before making any investment decisions. Gate is not responsible for any losses or damages arising from such decisions.

Author: Shirley
Reviewer(s): Ember, Mark
* The information is not intended to be and does not constitute financial advice or any other recommendation of any sort offered or endorsed by Gate.
* This article may not be reproduced, transmitted or copied without referencing Gate. Contravention is an infringement of Copyright Act and may be subject to legal action.
Start Now
Sign up and get a
$100
Voucher!